Quickly scanning today’s model solutions has me punting Tuesday as the backdoor front won’t make it far enough south for Virginia chasing that day. That pushes the chase potential back to Wednesday as the front drapes across the Old Dominion. CAPE looks good (1000-2000 j/kg) but bulk shear of 25-30 knots is only marginal for severe weather.

Parameters on Thursday look better but that still bears watching. More on all this after Monday’s 12Z model runs.