Alright now…quit confusing the convective picture this week!!
I had already concluded that Tuesday’s action would remain north of I-64 and thus be out of my desired chase territory. Then I took a look at a couple of WRF model solutions, starting with this one:
Then this one:
Both are valid at 6 pm Tuesday and both show significant convection – accompanied by some modest updraft helicity – approaching the U.S. Route 460 corridor. These forecast reflectivity maps are backed up by both the 12Z NAM and GFS runs which show a 500 mb vort max in that area in addition to a surface trough.
Tomorrow will thus entail watching satellite and surface obs while haunting the HRRR and RAP hourly runs to determine whether I actually chase three days this week. Quiet weather? What quiet weather?