With the Omega block finally moving out more typical May weather lies ahead this week. That means storm chase opportunities, one of which may arise in a limited window Monday afternoon as today’s cold front turns into tomorrow’s warm front.
This is the GFS solution for 5 pm tomorrow showing a small CAPE maximum over Bedford, Franklin, and northern Pittsylvania counties. (Amazingly enough the NAM solution looks very similar to this.) Per the surface analysis this area lies along the front that will be draped across Virginia tomorrow. Altho’ upper level winds don’t look very strong the short term model solutions bear watching in the morning.
Meanwhile Tuesday looks a bit juicier and is again lined up along the warm front.
This is the GFS CAPE graphic for 8 pm that evening. The upper level wind regime still doesn’t appear very strong but the front itself could provide enough low level shear to make things interesting.
Another cold front is due thru during the late week so chasing is definitely back on the table. We’ll see how it turns out.