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Despite the persistent gloominess hanging over Virginia there may be a ray of convective hope Sunday. At least some sunshine should percolate thru the clouds and increase low level lapse rates. In addition a cold pool in the axis of an overhead trough will enhance mid-level lapse rates, helping updrafts bubble upward. Thus this CAPE forecast (via today’s 18Z GFS) for Sunday afternoon:GFSMA_con_sbcape_099

Do I expect a great chase opportunity Sunday? Heck no…but it beats “Da Wedge” hands down!

Monday may feature a similar setup for the eastern half of Virginia before the cold pool completely departs. Then the next chance for storms looks to be Wednesday. Southwest flow at the surface for moisture advection plus a short wave passage could equal more chasing. Something to watch anyway.

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