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From yesterday’s morning blogpost: “The SPC is outlooking Sunday as a busy day, quite possibly as an Enhanced Risk for much of the Old Dominion.”



Still waiting for 12Z model runs this morning but both Saturday and Sunday look to be chase days in the Old Dominion. Saturday looks OK with enough instability to fire up a few strong storms that will likely provide more shelf clouds (see last night’s blogpost for examples!).

The approach of an upper level trough will lend 40+ knots of deep layer shear to the already decent CAPE – instability – values on Sunday. The SPC Day 3 discussion mentions supercells as the dominant mode during daylight hours.

Now it’s just a matter of watching the models and picking times and locations for initial targets.