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Back in the (chasing) saddle here in Virginia and mid-week is looking active. Wednesday may feature storms across southwestern counties as a warm front retreats north. Instability and shear are kinda ho-hum but it’ll be worth keeping an eye on the radar tomorrow afternoon.

Thursday looks a bit more intriguing. The same warm front stalls across the southern Piedmont as shown in this 18Z (2pm) GFS frame:

Thurs 18Z warm front

(Edited from a Pivotal Weather graphic)

Meanwhile a short wave will drop southeast from the Great Lakes that afternoon, providing lift to go along with decent CAPE (instability) and the shear zone represented by the warm front.

The Storm Prediction Center has painted the western third of the Old Dominion with a Slight Risk of severe  storms on Thursday while the rest of the state is under a Marginal Risk.VA_swody3

I’ll be focused on any convection that goes up near or on the warm front. Thus my initial target will likely be the Appomattox vicinity…not something those folks want to hear after the EF3 tornado that plowed thru there on Feb 24th.

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