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At the moment I’m doubting a chase will be worth it today. Models have trended toward keeping the main action across northern Virginia. Even so the main squall line won’t enter the Old Dominion until near dusk.

SPC has already issued a Mesoscale Discussion for the event:mcd0948

Looks like a severe TS watch is a shoo-in for later this afternoon across much of the state.

I had hoped for a few chaseable discrete cells to fire ahead of the line but mid-day surface winds across many areas are northwesterly. That tends to suppress convection east of the mountains via the downsloping and drying effect.

This HRRR forecast graphic looks impressive.03Z reflectivity from 12Z HRRR

Then you notice two things: the lack of precipitation across southern and southwestern VA and the timing (03Z or 11 pm). Neither of those factors are enticing me to head out.

The setup could change of course so I’ll be ready to go out anyway. However I’m not holding my breath at this point…