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After the massive “heat dome” retreats back west convection will return to the Old Dominion midweek. Given the humidity and sunshine available the CAPE – instability – will be explosive. Once upper level temperatures cool the cap will weaken, thus strong to severe storms should have no problem building in the afternoons and evenings.

A check of the GFS model bears this out starting with Wednesday. Shear will be relatively weak but the CAPE looks strong enough to create its own severe environment. If and when I do chase the storms will likely be slow moving hailers. They will also likely feature shelf clouds but a few decent wall clouds can’t be ruled out.

Tornadoes would only occur if strong outflow boundaries collide or if a dissipating frontal zone leaves enough shear behind to interact with a given updraft. Even so any tornado wouldn’t last long and may not be visible given the HP (high precipitation) nature of the storms. I don’t expect any widespread Storm Prediction Center tornado probabilities in Virginia this week.

More to follow later.

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