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So now it’s the second weekend of August and I have yet to chase any storms this month. To be fair I did pass up a couple of chances last week due to other considerations but being 0-for-August so far is a bit depressing.

Atlantic basin tropical activity has been relegated to the tremendous unnamed rain maker over the Gulf States (especially poor Louisiana) so there’s no convective hope from that quarter anytime soon. And the Bermuda High has rooted itself firmly in place this weekend sending dewpoints, temperatures, and heat indices soaring along the Atlantic seaboard. Altho’ CAPE – instability – is abundant updrafts are having a tough time climbing very high east of the mountains. The cap is pretty stout this afternoon with 700 mb temps over 12º (C) across the Piedmont:


The Bermuda High is forecast to drift further east early next week, allowing a trough to approach the Old Dominion. The forecast 700 mb temps for Monday afternoon look a bit cooler and thus more conducive to taller updrafts (and thus stronger storms).


So perhaps there will be an opportunity for a chase or two next week. Bulk shear still doesn’t look robust but in these summer doldrums I’ll take what I can get!