Both the GFS and Euro are now looking down their collective noses at the chances for severe weather early next week. The strong upper level winds will stay well north of the Old Dominion and no instability is showing up either.

However…having said that the GFS – but not the Euro – is bullish on the setup late next week. It develops an upper level low over the Tennessee valley such that Saturday now looks interesting with LOTS of shear and a modicum of instability.gfsus_500_spd_174

The Euro shows this low developing much further south so there’s little model agreement at this point.

So, we’ll see. Meanwhile I can hear the end of the 2016 chase season steaming down the track toward me.