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Haven’t totally ruled out a chase on Friday 10/21 but the setup isn’t looking good. The GFS and Euro have a strong surface front plowing across Virginia early Friday, too early and with too much cloud cover for decent instability. The 12Z NAM is holding out for a weak surface low to form along the boundary and slow it down by 3 or so hours compared to the other models. Per a late Friday morning forecast sounding along the U.S. 29 corridor that may allow CAPE to boost to nearly 1000 j/kg.

Even if the NAM is correct – it was the better model during the Feb 24th deep trough setup (which created a tornado outbreak) – this would be another high shear / low CAPE situation. Those are always dicey prospects for chasing around here especially with low LCL’s making visibility difficult. On top of that this looks and feels like a squall line event vs. discrete cells.

I’ll keep an eye on it but I’m not particularly hopeful at this point.

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