Ha! Here’s the 06Z Tuesday NAM sounding for the Piedmont area between LYH and DAN for 21Z (5 pm) this Thursday:
The NAM buys into significant moisture advection into Southside Virginia, thus the CAPE values are well over 1000. Meanwhile the GFS pooh-poohs the moisture advection and holds CAPE to near zero Thursday afternoon.
Do I believe Thursday will involve Virginia chasing? Nope. But I will be watching the evolution of the setup as a wedge front retreats north while a cold front approaches from the west. If instability does develop then – coupled with the shear values – Thursday could turn interesting.
I’m not holding my breath…