UPDATE 6:55 pm: Nope. I didn’t bite today and – obligingly – nothing chaseable materialized.
Sometimes the Virginia chase season really does last until Veterans’ Day. This funnel – just to the right of the rain shaft in the center – spun out from a wall cloud and storm east of Fredericksburg six years ago today. A new wall cloud is forming just to the left of the rain shaft:
With that in mind I peeked at the short range models for today and found some encouraging news for a possible chase. The HRRR, the RAP, and a couple of WRF models all show varying degrees of instability to go along with significant shear this afternoon. Most of them break out a line of showers/storms crossing the I-81 corridor around 3 pm.
Will I head out this afternoon and where do I target or would it be a waste of time and gasoline? The process will involve watching radar and surface observations and I’ll have to decide by 1 pm. Let the (guessing) games begin…