I’ve been watching the models handle the oncoming trough and Gulf moisture return for a while. This event is leading up to another high shear / low CAPE (HSLC) chasing decision. And, of course, the SPC Day 3 convective outlook shows this for Wednesday:
I’m not sold on the potential to see anything as these late season Mid-Atlantic setups typically involve low ceilings, fast-moving storms, and very limited visibility. But it’s worth keeping an eye on as the situation matures over the next 48 hours.
Ironically Wednesday (11/30) is also the last day of meteorological autumn.