I’ve been watching the GFS, Euro, and now the NAM (finally within range) for Monday’s chasing potential. Somewhat surprisingly the potential shifted to Sunday per last night’s 0Z GFS run:
The upper level and surface lows were shoved southward by recent GFS and Euro runs such that the instability wound up over far eastern North Carolina on Monday. Thus Monday looks to be off the table…probably.
Alas, by this morning’s run the GFS had joined the Euro model in concluding this southward progression of the low would keep the warm front south of Virginia on Sunday. Thus no instability and no chasing.
However, the ever optimistic NAM thinks differently per this evening’s 0Z run:
So the model watching continues. I’m confident I won’t be making any decision to chase or not to chase until sometime Saturday. Sunday? Monday? All still TBD.