I’ve been haunting the models today for the potential of a chase either tomorrow or Monday. At this point I’m ruling out Monday since the main forcing and instability will enter Virginia well after dark Sunday night. Night chasing is not a desirable activity of this chaser and the daylight hours Monday look pretty tame so no dice.
Meanwhile the current SPC Day 2 outlook for Sunday looks like this:
Based on the plethora of long, medium, and short-range models now in range I’m thinking that tomorrow’s SPC Day 1 outlook will likely shove the Slight Risk (yellow shade) further south into North Carolina. A weak cold air damming wedge looks to hold fast over southern Virginia and northern North Carolina until after sunset Sunday, suppressing surface-based convection.
Meanwhile the warm front separating the CAD wedge from the moist unstable air behind the boundary will stay south of the I-40 corridor during the daylight hours. I suppose motoring south of Greensboro NC to dive into the warm sector is an option but I have no desire to do so for this setup.
Having poured out all this negativity I will still be checking short-range models and keeping an eye on radar in the morning. After all, a January chase in this neck of the woods is a rare event so I wouldn’t want to miss a genuine opportunity!