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So here we go again this winter of 2017 with another tease for convective potential.gfsma_con_3kmehi_177

A cold front coming thru the Mid-Atlantic next Wednesday has enough associated shear, instability, and moisture to lift chasers’ eyebrows…at least according to this morning’s 12Z GFS run. The consistency in future runs will be interesting to watch as will the magnitude of agreement with other models. And of course whether this would result in a squall line (can we say shelf clouds?) or discrete cells is also up for grabs.

Timing is also of great importance during winter months with early sunsets limiting both daylight and available instability. Many similar setups in past years have resulted in night-time frontal passages. Storm speeds are typically in the “omigod” range this time of year so it may not be chasing as much as sitting in one spot and watching storms zoom by at highway speeds.

This setup is something worth watching but I’m not salivating over it yet.

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