This quote from today’s SPC Day 4-8 convective outlook sums up my feelings about chasing potential next week quite nicely:

“While at least a low-probability severe risk will likely be highlighted in future outlooks within an area roughly bounded by the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys on the north and west, and the Atlantic and Gulf coasts on the south and east, in the late Monday through Wednesday afternoon time frame, uncertainty/predictability issues preclude areal highlights at this time.”

Still, any chasing chance in Virginia during February shouldn’t be ignored so the model-watching will continue.