Tags

, ,

Given the well-after-dark convective development expected tonight this chaser won’t be out and about. (A forecast widespread area of rain doesn’t help matters either.) However it does look like things could interesting around Danville VA near midnight. Here’s an excerpt from the 14Z HRRR run showing updraft helicity at 05Z (midnight):05Z UD track.jpg

That track continues thru South Boston in later frames, eventually dissipating near the I-85 corridor. If true it’ll mean a significant mesocyclone crossing that area with perhaps large hail and the potential for a tornado. All this occurs on the east side of a developing surface low center along what appears to be a warm front.

If this were 6-8 hours earlier…

Advertisements