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Today is the 1 year anniversary of the very unusual February 2016 tornado outbreak here in Virginia. Ironically with temperatures in the 70s today and a cold front on the way another round of February severe weather could be on the horizon. Here’s the SPC Day 2 convective outlook covering Saturday 2/25:va_swody2

This is “only” a Marginal risk vs last year’s Moderate risk. The forecast shear vectors are closely aligned to storm motions, hinting at a squall line (sorry, QLCS for the weather terminology sticklers). However this model graphic shows some robust updraft helicities near Richmond and northeast of DC tomorrow afternoon:uh25_001h-us_ma

Thus there’s a potential for rotating supercells along and east of the I-95 corridor tomorrow afternoon that could feature large hail and perhaps a tornado or two.

Unfortunately that’s too far east and not robust enough for me to consider chasing. Moreover I have a local commitment Saturday afternoon which prevents me from straying too far. I will, however, keep an eye on radar here in Roanoke and may venture out to a local vantage point in the morning to watch the line go thru. I don’t expect to see much but why totally pass up a wintertime chase opportunity?

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