In an effort to NOT be caught unaware of the next chasing opportunity I glanced at the SPC convective outlook for Tuesday 3/21 and then checked out several models. Interestingly enough there is sufficient instability and shear showing up Tuesday afternoon to catch my attention. However a peek at forecast soundings puzzled me as the winds are northwesterly at pretty much all levels at the locations I checked. What could be a lifting mechanism?
Then I checked the NAM suite of models and found this at 21Z Tuesday. It’s a surface wedge front aligned roughly with U.S. Route 501 from South Boston to Lynchburg VA. (I added the white dotted line to delineate it.)
The GFS also shows a wedge boundary near this location but it sets up a few hours later after dark Tuesday evening. Oh, and none of last night’s 0Z WRF runs show much convection in Virginia tomorrow afternoon.
So it looks like I’ll be inspecting the models both today and tomorrow morning to determine whether a chase ventured would be worthwhile. The irony? Tomorrow at 9:45 a.m. is the statewide Virginia Tornado Drill.