I’ve had my eye on this coming Sunday – Easter – and this morning’s 12Z GFS run has continued a trend for severe weather potential that afternoon. Here’s the 3 km EHI forecast graphic at 5 pm Sunday:
Surface based CAPE values are over 2000 j/kg near Lynchburg VA with 0-6 km shear values over 30 knots. That’s enough to make a chaser sit up and take notice. What’s even more enticing is that forecast storm speeds are in the 30 knot range (i.e. chaseable) rather than recent setups that produced interstate-worthy speeds.
The GFS shows a surface front approaching Virginia during the wee hours Monday morning so that’s not the triggering mechanism for storms. There appears to be a weak shortwave moving across surface dew points in the low to mid-60s (F). That plus a pre-frontal trough just east of the mountains seems to be the storm triggering mechanism.
Regardless it’s worth keeping an eye on…and I may schedule another video Hangout to discuss the potential. However given the weekend that it is such a Hangout may not draw a lot of attention. We’ll see.