It now appears that Virginia will be spared any rough weather Easter Sunday as an approaching cold front won’t be close enough to affect things (with little upper level support arriving until after midnight). However Saturday may feature some storms across the western half of the Old Dominion as a warm front retreats northward. The warm moist air mass behind this boundary coupled with low level convergence near the Blue Ridge mountains looks like a combination that’ll lead to convection.
Here’s the NAM NEST forecast dew point map at 18Z (2 pm) Saturday:
The general position of the warm front is pretty evident on this graphic. The Storm Prediction Center has much of the state under a general thunderstorm risk for Saturday but part of that area could be bumped up to a Marginal risk in the Day 1 outlook.
Meanwhile the next potential for severe weather looks to arrive Wednesday in the form of a 500 mb short wave. If that trend continues we’ll conduct another On Air Hangout Monday evening to discuss it. Stay tuned!