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Model-watching is about all I can do on a grey showery day stuck under “Da Wedge” here in Virginia. What I see is that once that chasing nemesis retreats northward tomorrow – Thursday Apr 20 – enough instability will be in place to fire storms east of the Blue Ridge. However shear will be a scarce commodity so individual cells shown on these two model representations will not likely be long-lasting.

There could be a severe storm or two if any cells exhibit a strong enough gusting out phase but that’s about it. Target area and timing will be TBD until Thursday morning short range models come into play.

Meanwhile Friday a cold front will slide across the Old Dominion triggering storms along and ahead of the boundary. CAPE (instability) will once again be plentiful but with more shear in place. The latter parameter will still be on the low end for severity but it’s likely going to look good enough to entice me to head out.Fri 21Z 3 km NAM

Sunday looks very interesting with a surface low skirting eastward along the VA/NC border. At the moment the timing and location of the associated warm front doesn’t look favorable for me to go out but I’ll be watching that models closely as upper level winds could impart plenty of energy to this setup.

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