Even though the convective picture for Friday-Sunday is still somewhat murky Andrew Smith and I will conduct a Hangout this coming Wednesday evening to talk about it. The heat and humidity building into Virginia will send model CAPE values soaring above 2500 J/kg by mid-week but the only available convective trigger will be orographic lift. In addition the upper level winds are fairly light so shear will also be a non-factor.
That all will change come Friday as a weak cold front drapes itself across the Old Dominion and stalls.
The presence of the boundary doesn’t help with the lack of upper level winds but it does introduce a shear zone near the surface as well as a potential trigger. I’ve seen similar setups with ballistic CAPE values in July and August produce unexpected low level storm rotation and tornado warnings when storms hit that shear zone.
So we’ll see what develops among the various numerical models by Wednesday evening and yak about it a while. Tune in!