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With an upper level trough marching across the nation this week’s weather in the Mid-Atlantic is unsettled at best. The ever-annoying cold air damming wedge is holding fast but there are hints that it may retreat far enough north for severe weather in Virginia late Wednesday into Thursday. This is the 12Z NAM forecast sounding for 21Z (5 pm) Wednesday in Danville:2017052312_NAM_033_36.69,-78.84_severe_ml

This is the NAM’s optimistic view that the warm/wedge front will retreat north of the NC/VA border late Wednesday afternoon. I haven’t seen the 12Z runs for the GFS or any of the WRF models yet but the 06Z GFS also seems bullish on the northward motion of that boundary.

Then Thursday the trough axis swings across Virginia at the same time a surface low spins over Ohio. Convection could get interesting across other parts of the Old Dominion. As such Andrew Smith and I have scheduled another Hangout this evening (Tuesday) at 8 pm to discuss the setup. Our guest tonight will be Aubrey Urbanowicz, chief meteorologist at WHSV TV-3 in Harrisonburg and panelist extraordinaire on WeatherBrains. Tune in for the discussion.

Oh, and I’m keeping an eye on the Memorial Day weekend as well. It could also be convectively active.

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