Having been out of the chasing mode for a week it’s time to keep an eye on the sky again. Tomorrow (Monday 7/17) the SPC has the mountains of Virginia in a Marginal Risk area:
I’ve peeked at the NAM NEST and several WRF models and all I see so far is a chance for a few scattered cells firing tomorrow afternoon. Shear is minimal but a weak boundary looks to push southward along the Blue Ridge, dividing westerly winds from an easterly push of moisture off the Atlantic. Upper level temperatures seem to be cool enough to prevent a cap forming so we’ll see what happens. One never knows what outflow boundaries could do.
I’ll likely chase at some point Monday but it may be a case of watching radar and satellite and heading out once something convective rears its head. Storm motions will be slow enough to allow a standing start (I hope). Mid-July is too hot to park somewhere and wait for storms to fire.
Need a Plains trip next year!!!!!