I seriously considered chasing today even before the SPC issued a Marginal Risk across much of Virginia:
However I wound up punting today for a few reasons and it looks like I didn’t miss much since I wasn’t willing to stray into far NW Virginia. The cool stuff is happening north of the I-66 corridor while the majority of the activity south of U.S. Route 60 is a rainy blob. Oh, and did I mention the KFCS (Blacksburg) radar is still down? Relying on the edges of neighboring radar sites’ coverage is okay given discrete storms and good visibility but that’s not the case today.
Tomorrow looks a bit better for chasing as a cold front approaches from the west. A prefrontal trough looks to fire convection east of the Blue Ridge by late afternoon. Decent deep layer shear and instability values led the SPC to issue a Day 2 Marginal risk across most of the Old Dominion:
The best parameters per both the NAM and GFS will be in the southeastern corner of the state. But there is enough potential just east of the mountains to convince me to head to the Piedmont. Time and target is still TBD but for now Saturday’s the day.