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I’m now officially doubting today – Saturday – will be a chase day. Oh, yes, there will be storms, some of them likely to be rip-snorting supercells. But timing and location seem to be conspiring against me chasing today.

Besides the fact that the better shear is along and north of I-64 the 700 mb temperatures look too warm south of that corridor. Short term models (HRRR and various WRF models) have showers firing and rapidly dissipating across much of southern and south-central Virginia. That screams CAPPING to me.

Moreover the cold front that will add lift to the storm equation appears to exert its influence south of I-64 after sunset when convection will begin to wane. Some decent cells look like they’ll fire by 7 o’clock in the Charlottesville vicinity but I’m not going anywhere near that area today!

Meanwhile there will be some awesome storms today, just not when and where I’m willing to chase. The HRRR did an excellent job of forecasting the path of the tornado-warned supercell that plowed across northern VA Friday afternoon/evening. Here’s today’s 15Z HRRR depiction of reflectivity and updraft helicity at 8 pm:HRRR reflectivity at 0Z

If I still lived in the Fredericksburg area I’d be out chasing near sunset while simultaneously advising my wife to take shelter. But not living near that area any longer I’ll pass on this opportunity.

So, unless things drastically change in the next couple of hours I’ll be sitting here at home watching baseball and radar…probably in that order.

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