Sitting here on yet another rainy morning – with epic flooding occurring across the southwestern portions of the Old Dominion – has left me scratching my head at what happened to the spring 2020 storm chase season. Although there could be some capped convection this weekend I’m still not seeing any definitive signals of robust convection on the models anytime soon.
The jet stream continues to park itself north of the Great Lakes region – a la mid-summer – leaving little upper support for strong convection. There is a hint on the GFS that Virginia could finally see some decent instability on the very last weekend of this month but, again, the upper level winds would be very weak.
For more near-term activity this is the SPC Day 2 outlook for Friday, 5/22:
I’ll be watching radar and satellite tomorrow but given the potential for flooded roadways I doubt I would venture very far from home (COVID-19 considerations notwithstanding). Also a peek at a few forecast soundings indicate a cap near 700 mb to along with mediocre CAPE values, so the potential for any decent convection seems low.
Just sittin’ here…