An unplanned mini-chase

Monday May 6th was a dangerous day in the Plains, with an SPC High Risk forecast across most of Oklahoma up into Kansas. Here in Virginia there was only a forecast for general thunderstorms:

So far this spring my season has been lackluster (disappointing might be a better descriptor), especially since I haven’t ventured into far eastern portions of the state where things have been a bit more active. On this first Monday of May I drove south to the Stuart vicinity to meet my son to spend some time together at his mountain cabin. After lunch he planned to do some outdoor work but was thwarted when we both noticed via radar storms moving in our general direction. We bade farewell to the cabin and both motored to a vantage point in western Henry county to observe.

Alas, the strong storm we had been eyeing on radar fell apart as it crossed the Blue Ridge mountains. Departing from there my son headed east and I drove north along U.S. Route 220 toward home in hopes of catching up with convection crossing the mountains into Franklin county. I made it to the Glade Hill vicinity in time to see this weak shelf cloud:

After moving further north to a point along the VA Route 40 corridor it became obvious that I wouldn’t be able to stay ahead of this activity as it continued northeast. Thus I bailed on it and headed for home without scratching a growing itch for a decent 2024 storm chase.

#vawx A Silver anniversary and a better convective outlook for next week

Today – May 3rd – is a somber 25th anniversary of the 1999 Oklahoma tornado outbreak, including a devastating F5 which plowed across the OKC vicinity. It doesn’t seem that long ago.

Meanwhile I’m still awaiting a decent convective setup here in my chase region. That may be forthcoming next week with the SLIM factors (shear/lift/instability/moisture) looking like they’ll come together. Here are the aggregate outlooks from CIPS, CSU-MLP, and the Storm Prediction Center for Tuesday (Day 5) through Thursday (Day 7):

It’s tempting to think about heading out to the Ohio valley during this period as well, but circumstances will likely nix that idea. So, despite a current lack of optimism by the SPC perhaps some decent local chasing will occur…finally?

#vawx A paucity of spring storms

The next several days look to be prolific for severe weather out west as shown in this CSU 6 panel graphic:

However, my chances of heading out to the Plains this year are slim. Thus my chasing will be confined to areas much further east.

So far this spring things here in Virginia have been unusually quiet. I’d hoped for a repeat of the very active (and long) storm season of 2016, another year when El Nino quickly switched to a La Nina pattern. However, the chasing opportunities so far this spring have been very disappointing around these parts. The above graphic does hint at something next Tuesday (4/30), with this CIPS panel looking a bit more optimistic:

I’ve been keeping an eye on next Tuesday for a few days now. We’ll see if it pans out, and I’ll be even more interested to see if this signals a pattern shift to more favorable moisture return and instability. I’m ready for some decent chase setups!!

#vawx Tax Day expectations and disappointment

Monday April 15th looked like a chase day, especially if I chose to head north toward the I-64 corridor. A cold front dropping south across Virginia was to fire severe storms with high bases and a good chance of large hail. A rare elevated mixed layer advected into the Old Dominion from the Ohio valley, assisting this convective setup. Thus, I had mentally marked the day on the calendar for a likely chase outside my usual territory.

However, several things then altered my perception of things. First, the mid-day SPC convective update increased the risk to Slight across much of the state which included my general area:

Second (and third), the SPC issued an MD and then a Severe Thunderstorm Watch covering the entire region:

As I stated in yesterday’s blogpost I did a lot of humming, being caught by surprise by this sudden intensification of expectations. I had already gone through the available convective allowing models and had seen that a “Tail-End Charlie” storm complex was likely around dinnertime south of Lynchburg. But very little other convection was indicated south of the expected vigorous action along the I-64 corridor. Dew points in the low 50s just didn’t seem to support much action south of there.

But, given the raised expectations I modified my personal thinking and decided to target Gretna as a staging area for any southern storms. I arrived there after 4:30 and stopped for an early dinner to await what would occur. After dallying there for a while I didn’t see much of interest on radar, although there were some weak towers visible to the west. I pushed further east and then south along the Cody Road, finding a rural spot to sit and observe that weak activity. Meanwhile I could see the anvils of storms well to the northeast that were trudging along the aforementioned I-64 corridor. I also noted that the southwest breeze at my location felt very dry, not humid at all.

I finally noticed a storm on radar near Lynchburg that was moving southeast. Pulling up stakes I drove north on back roads through Long Island to the hamlet of Gladys in Campbell county. From there I continued east toward Red House, switching on the live stream and pausing for a quick photo of a faint rainbow:

Finally arriving at an open vantage point on the Red House road I stopped to watch this storm, which wasn’t severe-warned but did have a special weather statement on it:

This was a wide angle view of that cell as it moved east away from me, complete with mammatus:

With no other activity anywhere within reach before dark I decided to call it a chase. Turning around to look west at more weak convection this was one of my final views before heading home:

A peek at the storm reports from yesterday shows that this chase met my earlier expectations vs. the heightened ones per the SPC outlook. (I still don’t understand the scope of that Severe Thunderstorm Watch.)

#vawx Lots of humming going on

Parts of the Old Dominion were just upgraded to an Enhanced Risk by the SPC for this afternoon and evening:

Hmmm….

And an MD was issued for much of the state with a Severe TS Watch following:

Double hmmm….

And Tuesday now contains a Marginal Risk for my general chase area:

Triple hmmm…

I had already given some thought to chasing today, and I’ve already picked my initial target and timing for this afternoon. Tuesday’s convection looks like it’ll happen a bit earlier.

#vawx Nope, didn’t really think so

Thursday April 11th was one of those “hopeful but it didn’t happen” chase days. I was mostly skeptical of the potential for seeing anything worthwhile, even though I did succumb a bit to overly optimistic forecasts (see yesterday’s blogpost) like this SPC Day 1 convective forecast:

The Slight Risk across western Virginia corresponded to a 5+% tornado potential, of which I was highly skeptical. Short range convective allowing models (CAMs) and a widespread rain shield both pointed to very stable air across the Old Dominion, with little instability to accompany the abundant wind shear. Thus I was somewhat amazed to hear the weather radio sound the alarm for this Tornado Watch:

Initially I’d planned to target the Martinsville VA vicinity, thinking about prepositioning there at 5:00 pm. Thus I kept a close watch on radar, surface observations, and visible satellite especially over western North Carolina. However, based on these trends plus the CAMs I became more and more convinced the stable air would win out. Plus, it was pretty obvious as the day progressed that any storms which did fire wouldn’t cross the VA/NC state line until near sunset. Since (a) I’m not a nocturnal chaser and (b) my chase ventures south of the state line are usually unproductive in highly unfavorable terrain I finally made the command decision to bag it.

I did head out to a local vantage point at 7 o’clock to observe showers entering the area. I saw nothing of note before darkness set in. And, after examining this storm report map from yesterday I felt even more vindicated in my decision to not head out of town:

All those wind damage reports occurred after dark. See any tornado reports? Yeah, neither do I.