Of course the SPC has now spilled a Marginal Risk across Virginia for Sunday:
The Piedmont is covered by a 2% tornado risk tomorrow, giving rise to this Marginal outlook.
The SPC wording, however, fits with my reading of the setup in that “conditional potential” pretty much sums it up. Checking out the short range convective allowing models casts doubt on anything like certainty with only one or two models showing any robust convection. I can’t find much – if any – upper level support to fire storms over the Piedmont nor does the cold front itself seem do much with the available moisture.
So far nothing has changed my mind about staying home (or least very local) tomorrow. If storms do fire the forward speeds still favor a “watch and wave” vs. a true chase opportunity. Coupled with the wisdom of self-isolation during these trying times it’s likely that Sunday afternoon will only involve haunting the radar and peeking outside for glimpses of anvils.